Manufacturers Group Forecast: 7% Appliance Growth in 2013
Sep 20, 2013
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Household appliance production in the United States is projected to increase 7% in 2013, 4% in 2014, and 4% in 2015, according to the Manufacturers Alliance for Productivity and Innovation.
Overall, U.S. production was at a strong pace in the first quarter of 2013, decreased slightly in the second quarter, but is expected to accelerate in the coming months.
MAPI's quarterly U.S. Industrial Outlook report analyzes 27 major industries. The report said that manufacturing grew exceptionally quickly in the first quarter of 2013--at a 5.2% annual rate. The second quarter saw a correction, with manufacturing declining at a 0.8% annual rate.
The alliance forecasts that manufacturing production will show a 2013 increase of 2.2%. This is less than the 3.1% forecast by the group in June 2013.
MAP said a 2014 pickup is likely, with growth expected to be 3.2%--that's down from 3.6% in the June report. The alliance also expects manufacturing production will outperform GDP growth. It expects GDP to be 1.6% in 2013 and 2.8% in 2014.
The report also makes an initial forecast for manufacturing production for 2015 of 4.1% growth.
"The outlook for 2014 and 2015 calls for close to a percentage point improvement in the growth rate each year," said MAPI Chief Economist Daniel J. Meckstroth, Ph.D., author of the analysis. "Consumer spending growth has remained remarkably stable because of surprisingly robust employment growth in the sluggish economy; the payroll tax increase is in the rearview mirror, and spending will accelerate in 2014; and households have low debt burdens and their wealth position is rising.
He added that businesses are positioned to make new investments in structures and equipment.
"What is needed is more confidence about the future," Meckstroth said. With the Eurozone coming out of recession, export activity should pick up and provide a boost to business sentiment."
The report offers economic forecasts for 23 of the 27 industries analyzed in the report. It expects 14 industries to show gains in 2013, 3 to remain flat, and 6 to show declines.
The report estimates housing starts to see a 20% increase. Motor vehicles and parts production, like household appliances, are forecast to grow 7%.
The outlook improves in 2014, with growth likely in 22 of 23 industries, led by housing starts at 30%. Only public works construction is expected to show a 2014 decline.
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