Manufacturers Alliance Expects Modest Global Recovery
May 4, 2010
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Doubts about the reality and sustainability of the global economic crisis are subsiding among governments, financial markets, and business leaders, according to the Machinery and Allied Products Institute. Still, MAPI says in the Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI Global Report—April 2010, there is lingering concerns about the short-term challenges of monetary policy adjustment and longer-term fiscal troubles, particularly in advanced economies.
Lingering concerns about recovery “must be placed in the context of a world economy that is clearly rebounding from a deep bottom," economist Cliff Waldman writes in the report.
“There is the likelihood that a handful of emerging market nations, notably China, India, Brazil, and South Korea, will disproportionally lead world growth in the early years of the new expansion with a forward momentum that is likely to be strong enough to compensate for residual elements of darkness in the industrialized economies’ outlook,” Waldman said.
MAPI anticipates U.S. exports of goods and services will grow 9.2% in 2010, compared to a contraction of nearly 10% in 2009. 2011 growth is expected to be 7.6%.
In post-World War II U.S. economic history, export declines as large as 2009's have been followed by stronger and more certain rebounds.
GDP in non-U.S. industrialized countries, which include Canada, the Eurozone (plus Denmark, the United Kingdom, and Sweden), and Japan, is expected to rise incrementally from an estimated 1.9% growth during the first quarter of 2010 to 2.6% growth in the second half of 2011.
MAPI expects developing countries to grow at a faster pace, with aggregate developing country GDP expected to grow 3.7% in the first half of 2010 and reach a high of 4.6% growth in the second half of 2011.
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