OECD Composite Leading Indicators Continue to Fall
Feb 9, 2009
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The outlook for the world's major industrialized and emerging economies weakened further in December and non-OECD countries are now also facing a strong slowdown, according to the Organization for Economic Development (OECD).
The OECD's composite leading indicator (CLI) for the Group of Seven advanced industrial nations fell to 92.4 from 93.7 in November, or an 8.6 point year-on-year drop. (See below for OECD definitions.)
"OECD composite leading indicators for December 2008 continue to point to a weakening outlook for all the major seven economies. The indicators in most OECD countries have fallen to levels that were last seen during the oil shocks of the 1970s," the OECD report said. "The outlook has significantly deteriorated in the major non-OECD member economies who are now also facing strong slowdowns," it said.
The sharpest year-on-year fall among the G7 economies was in Germany with a drop of 11.8 points to 90.9 in December, down from 92.5 in November. Japan's indicator fell to 92.2 in December from 93.7 the previous month and was down 7.3 points year-on-year. Among the BRIC countries, Russia posted the sharpest year-on-year drop with an indicator at 86.7, down 17.7 points from December 2007.
Other country CLIs include:
• The CLI for the United States fell by 1.4 point in December and was 9.5 points lower than a year ago.
• The Euro area’s CLI decreased by 0.9 point in December and stood 8.2 points lower than a year ago.
• In December, the CLI for Japan decreased by 1.4 point, and was 7.3 points lower than a year ago.
• The CLI for the UK fell by 0.4 point in December 2008 and was 6.8 points lower than a year ago.
• The CLI for Canada decreased by 1.1 point in December and was 7.2 points lower than a year ago.
• For France, the CLI decreased by 0.5 point in December and was 5.9 points lower than a year ago.
• For Italy, the CLI fell by 0.4 point in December and stood 5.6 points lower than a year ago.
In all the G7 and major emerging economies listed, except Brazil, the growth cycle outlook was described as a "strong slowdown." Brazil's was listed as a "slowdown."
OECD Frequently Used Terms
Organization for Economic Development (OECD) frequently used terms:
OECD-Total covers the following 29 countries: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Korea, Luxembourg, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovak Republic, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, United Kingdom, and United States.
The Group of Seven (G7) includes:
Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom and United States.
The Euro area (only Euro area countries that are members of OECD) includes 12 countries: Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Ireland, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal, and Spain.
The Major Five Asia includes: China, India, Indonesia, Japan and Korea.
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