Japan Forecasts Manufacturing for Q2 and Q3 2009
May 4, 2009
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The Business Conditions business survey index from Japan's Ministry of Finance shows the January-March 2009 quarter was at -51% for companies with capital of ¥1 billion or more (approx. US$10 million), but the MOF forecasts significant improvements in Business Conditions and Domestic Economic Conditions in the Q2 and Q3 of 2009.

 

Business conditions
Business Survey Index

Change quarter-to-quarter
Oct.-Dec.
2008 (previous)
Jan.-Mar.
2009
(current)
Apr.-Jun.
2009
(outlook)
Jul.-Sep.
2009
(outlook)
Corporations w capital of ¥1 billion or more
       
All industries
-35.7%
-51.3%
-24.8%
-7.0%
Manufacturing
-44.5%
-66.0%
-27.0%
-4.7%
Non-manufacturing
-30.5%
-42.6%
-23.5%
-8.3%
Corporations w capital of ¥1 million to ¥1 billion
       
All industries
-33.3%
-51.3%
-32.6%
-13.6%
Manufacturing
-43.7%
-69.1%
-32.7%
-9.2%
Non-manufacturing
-30.0%
-45.8%
-32.6%
-15.0%
Corporations w capital of ¥10 million to ¥100 million
       
All industries
-40.7%
-52.9%
-34.7%
-22.3%
Manufacturing
-51.3%
-72.4%
-38.8%
-22.2%
Non-manufacturing
-38.5%
-48.8%
-33.8%
-22.3%

Source: Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan

 

Domestic Economic Conditions
Business Survey Index
Change quarter-to-quarter
Oct.-Dec.
2008 (previous)
Jan.-Mar.
2009
(current)
Apr.-Jun.
2009
(outlook)
Jul.-Sep.
2009
(outlook)
Corporations w capital of ¥1 billion or more
       
All industries
-63.8%
-74.6%
-41.2%
-17.5%
Manufacturing
-67.8%
-78.8%
-35.4%
-9.5%
Non-manufacturing
-61.4%
-72.2%
-44.6%
-22.2%
Corporations w capital of ¥1 million to ¥1 billion
       
All industries
-65.0%
-76.4%
-52.5%
-28.2%
Manufacturing
-66.9%
-81.7%
-46.0%
-17.6%
Non-manufacturing
-64.4%
-74.7%
-54.5%
-31.6%
Corporations w capital of ¥10 million to ¥100 million
       
All industries
-66.8%
-74.7%
-53.4%
-35.8%
Manufacturing
-68.9%
-82.4%
-51.9%
-27.9%
Non-manufacturing
-66.4%
-73.1%
-53.7%
-37.4%

Source: Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan

 

Sales compared with previous year
FY2008
1st Half of FY 2008
2nd Half of FY 2008
FY2009
1st Half of FY 2009
2nd Half of FY 2009
All industries
-4.9%
2.6%
-11.9%
-7.3%
-13.2%
-1.0%
Manufacturing
-7.7%
3.2%
-18.0%
-11.0%
-19.7%
-0.9%
Non-manufacturing
-3.6%
2.3%
-9.1%
-5.9%
-10.6%
-1.0%

Source: Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan

 

Ordinary Profits compared with previous year
FY2008
1st Half of FY 2008
2nd Half of FY 2008
FY2009
1st Half of FY 2009
2nd Half of FY 2009
All industries
-4.9%
2.6%
-11.9%
-7.3%
-13.2%
-1.0%
Manufacturing
-7.7%
3.2%
-18.0%
-11.0%
-19.7%
-0.9%
Non-manufacturing
-3.6%
2.3%
-9.1%
-5.9%
-10.6%
-1.0%

Source: Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan

 

Investment in plant and equipment compared with the previous year
FY2008
1st Half of FY 2008
2nd Half of FY 2008
FY2009
1st Half of FY 2009
2nd Half of FY 2009
All industries
-10.3%
-5.9%
-14.1%
-29.4%
-27.7%
-31.0%
Manufacturing
-7.3%
-0.1%
-13.5%
-37.9%
-37.1%
-38.8%
Non-manufacturing
-12.7%
-10.5%
-14.6%
-22.8%
-19.9%
-25.6%

Source: Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan

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