OECD Indicators Signal Improved Global Economic Outlook
Feb 12, 2007
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The latest composite leading indicators (CLIs) from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) suggest that continued economic expansion is in the cards for the OECD area.

December 2006 data show improved performance in the CLI's 6-month rate of change in Canada, the U.S. and Japan, but weakening performance in the Euro area.

The spreads between short- and long-term interest rates are contributing negatively to the performance of the CLIs in all the major seven economies, while business confidence is contributing positively in the U.S., Germany and the United Kingdom. The latest data for major OECD non-member economies point to strong growth in China, India and Brazil, but a weakening outlook for Russia.

The CLI for the OECD area increased by 0.3 point in December to 109.9, from 109.6 in November, but its 6-month rate of change has been relatively stable since August 2006.

  • The CLI for the U.S. rose by 0.4 point in December and its 6-month rate of change increased for the third month in a row.
  • The Euro area’s CLI was unchanged in December, but its 6-month rate of change has fallen since June 2006.
  • In December 2006, the CLI for Japan rose by 0.2 point and its 6-month rate of change has increased for the last 5 months.
  • The CLI for the UK fell by 0.4 point in December and its 6-month rate of change shows a downward trend since May 2006.
  • The CLI for Canada rose by 0.4 point in December, and its 6-month rate of change shows an upward trend since May 2006.
  • For France the CLI fell by 0.5 point in December, and its 6-month rate of change decreased for the second consecutive month.
  • The CLI for Germany rose by 0.3 point in December, but its 6-month rate of change shows a downward trend since May 2006.
  • For Italy the CLI decreased by 0.1 point in December and its 6-month rate of change fell for the sixth month in a row.
  • The CLI for China rose by a strong 5.9 points in December, and its 6-month rate of change increased for the third consecutive month.
  • The CLI for India increased by 1.4 point in November, and its 6-month rate of change was up for the fourth month in a row.
  • The CLI for Russia rose by 1.5 point in December, but its 6-month rate of change shows a downward trend since May 2006.
  • In December, the CLI for Brazil increased by 1.9 point and its 6-month rate of change shows an upward trend since June 2006. 

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