The Outdoor Power Equipment Institute (OPEI) has developed an econometric forecasting model for hand-held power equipment. Under the direction of Professor Saul Hyman, director of the Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics at the University of Michigan, the Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration Institute conducted statistical research to design and implement the forecast model.
The model consists of four product categories, which include, chain saws, trimmers/brush-cutters, hand-held blowers, and backpack blowers.
At the request of the OPEI Hand-Held Products Committee, monthly shipment data was aggregated into calendar year January to December for the analysis. This contrasts with the consumer and commercial turf models, which are based on model year September to August data.
The key economic drivers used in the hand-held equations are national economic growth, changes in the unemployment rate, singleh and multihfamily housing sales, investments in private building construction, and changes in the adult population.
For hand-held blowers, OPEI forecasts the segment will increase 12.1 percent in 2003 to 2,017,621 units, and 2.9 percent in 2004 to 2,076,061 units. Backpack blowers are expected to increase 18.6 percent in 2003 to 466,365 units, but decrease 3.9 percent in 2004 to 448,269 units. Trimmers are forecast to increase 17.1 percent to 6,437,771 units in 2003 and 6.1 percent in 2004 to 6,828,439 units. OPEI also expects chain saws to increase 2.6 percent to 2,666,379 units in 2003 and 4.2 percent in 2004 to 2,779,554 units.
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