U.S. Economy Posts Small Growth in Q4 Jan 31, 2003

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Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the U.S. -- increased at an annual rate of 0.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2002, according to advance estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on Thursday. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 4.0 percent.

The Bureau’s fourth-quarter "advance" estimates are based on source data that are incomplete and are subject to further revision by the source agency. The fourth-quarter "preliminary" estimates, based on more comprehensive data, will be released on Feb. 28, 2003.

The major contributors to the increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter were government spending, personal consumption expenditures (PCE), equipment and software, and residential fixed investment. The contributions of these components were partly offset by negative contributions from private inventory investment, from nonresidential structures, and from exports. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

The deceleration in real GDP growth in the fourth quarter primarily reflected a sharp deceleration in PCE and downturns in private inventory investment and in exports that were partly offset by a smaller decrease in nonresidential structures and by accelerations in federal government spending and in residential fixed investment. Imports increased slightly more than in the third quarter.

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