U.S. holiday retail sales are estimated to rise 3.8%, according to an outlook report from Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Economics Group. The increase is above average for the last decade, although less than the 5.7% increase in November and December of 2011.
Headwinds to consumer spending include uncertainty around the impending fiscal cliff, job growth, and slowing real disposable income, while the slow expansion of consumer credit should help to support some consumer spending.
Even with boost to retail sales in the fourth quarter, Wells Fargo said it expects real personal consumption expenditures to stay in the 2% percent range through the end of 2012.
