Several factors will cause global solar growth to slow in 2012, but new installations will rebound and reach 38.3 GW in 2017 as the industry learns to navigate a global market without subsidies, according to a report from Lux Research.
But the report also said securitization will boost smaller installations. Asset-backed securities are spurring growth of the small-scale segment in the U.S. residential and commercial markets. Securitization and renewable bonds - which have been tested in New Jersey by Wells Fargo and in Italy by SunPower - are likely to see widespread growth in 2012 or 2013. Major commercial banks like Citigroup are expected to lead this effort.
The research firm said 2011 global solar growth surged to 26.5 GW; 2012 will stay almost flat at 26.9 GW. Fast solar growth in 2011 and the expected drop in 2012 are blamed on a supply glut caused mostly by Chinese solar producers, speculation of incentive reductions in Europe, and the end of the United States' 1603 Cash Grant.
"The solar industry's storied history has created a massive misperception of technology maturity and commodity status," said Matthew Feinstein, Lux research analyst and lead author of the new report.
Emerging markets are expected to more than quadruple in size and South Asia will make up the majority of growth until 2017. ASEAN, Africa, and South America will be the strongest developing nation growth markets for solar from 2017 to 2022.
to Daily News