The Chinese market for low-voltage integral horsepower a.c. motors will nearly triple in revenues from 2010 to 2016, to reach $7.9 billion in 2016, according to a forecast from IMS Research. Unit shipments are expected to grow annually at double-digit rates, reaching 22.6 million units in 2016. Growth will be driven by local power-saving legislation mandating sales of higher-efficiency, more expensive motors.
IMS said that, with a transition to IE3 Premium Efficiency completed by the end of 2010, the United States and Canada are the global leaders in motor efficiency standards. “China is far behind North America," said Analyst Wilmer Zhou of IMS. "We are starting to see how government directives for improved motor efficiencies will result in leveling the playing field for motor manufacturers in China. The Chinese motor manufacturers are required to change to selling IE2 motors in July 2011. While this might seem to make it harder to enter the motor market and to eliminate many low-end motor suppliers, all industries will benefit greatly from improved motor efficiency leading to a significant reduction in energy costs, which is the prime objective of the legislation."
Shifting from IE1 to IE2 will make motors sold in China more expensive. IE2 efficiency-class motors are priced more than 30% higher than IE1 motors, IMS said, and it estimates that market revenues for IE2 motors will double in 2011. International companies and local suppliers will take the lead in the market, IMS believes, including; ABB, Siemens, Teco, Huali, Nanyang - Explosion, Jiamusi, Hebei, and Jinlong. IE1 will still dominate, with over 60% of revenues until 2013 in China, and the biggest shift will happen in 2014 and 2015. The IE2 segment will account for most of the revenues in 2016.
"By 2016, the IE2 market is expected to account for 75% of Chinese low voltage AC motor revenues," Wilmer said.
China also has the advantages in the rare earth mineral market and is expected to be the leading producer and consumer of permanent magnet motors. IMS predicted that, with rebates, the permanent magnet motor will be the fastest growing of the low-voltage AC motor types in China, with nearly 80% CAGR from 2010 to 2016.
to Daily News