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OECD Composite Leading Indicators Point to Recovery
Jan 12, 2010
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OECD composite leading indicators (CLIs) for November 2009 provide stronger signals of recovery than in last month’s assessment.

Troughs in the underlying reference series – the index of industrial production - for all major seven countries, except Canada and the United Kingdom, are also visible, and the CLIs for all major seven countries have moved above their long-term trend, implying an expansionary outlook relative to trend. The outlook for major non-member economies also continues to point to a recovery.

The CLI for the OECD area increased by 1.0 point in November 2009 and was 8.2 points higher than in November 2008. The CLI for the United States increased by 1.0 point in November, 6.8 points higher than a year ago. The Euro area’s CLI increased by 1.1 point in November, 10.9 points higher than a year ago. The CLI for Japan increased by 1.2 point in November, 5.4 points higher than a year ago.

The CLI for the United Kingdom increased by 1.2 point in November 2009 and was 10.7 points higher than a year ago. The CLI for Canada increased by 1.0 point in November, 9.4 points higher than a year ago. The CLI for France increased by 1.2 point in November, 11.9 points higher than a year ago. The CLI for Germany increased by 1.4 points in November, 12.3 points higher than a year ago. The CLI for Italy increased by 0.9 point in November, 13.8 points higher than a year ago.

The CLI for China increased 0.2 point in November 2009, 7.6 points higher than a year ago. The CLI for India is unchanged in November and 4.3 points higher than a year ago. The CLI for Russia increased by 1.0 point in November, 3.4 points higher than a year ago. The CLI for Brazil increased by 0.8 point in November, 1.3 points lower than a year ago.

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