Housing in the U.S. continues to have a rough time of it, but The National Association of Home Builders is announcing forecasted housing starts for 2010 and 2011.
NAHB declares that, "All the month-to-month volatility makes one nervous about declaring a bottom in the market." Even so, NAHB says, stabilization of demand appears to have happened – meaning the housing market has, indeed, taken the first step towards recovery.
As reported in APPLIANCE Stats Brief two weeks ago, new homes sales were down just 0.6% in May. See:
NAHB points out that first quarter sales averaged 339,000 per month. April and May averaged 343,000, making for a small but definite improvement.
NAHB reports that single-family existing home sales averaged 4.1 million/month in the first quarter of 2009, but averaged 4.2 million in April and May. May’s 4.25 million single-family sales at a seasonally adjusted, annual rate was the highest since October 2008.
Many of these sales are foreclosed homes and short sales, and that provides necessary purging of foreclosed homes inventory.
Competition from foreclosed homes, buyer wariness, a tough lending environment, and undervalued homes are all acting to slow the market. Still, NAHB points out that builders are paring inventories.
Housing will recover slowly, but NAHB expects starts to be just over a half million in 2009 and about 650,000 in 2010 as we move toward full production by 2012 or 2013.
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