PC Market Will Slow As Financial Turmoil Spreads, According to IDC Dec 5, 2008

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As the economic crisis continues to evolve, demand for personal computers is expected to slow quickly. Research firm IDC expects worldwide PC shipments to grow just 3.8% in 2009 with shipment value falling by 5.3%. This is slower than 2Q projections of 13.7% growth in units and 4.5% in shipment value. The outlook for full year 2008 and 2010 have each been lowered a couple percentages to 12.4% and 10.9%, respectively, with growth above 12% for 2011 and 2012.

Emerging markets in Latin America, Central Europe, the Middle East, and Africa are among the most significantly affected in the short term, the group says. Falling commodity prices, a rising dollar, and restricted credit have had a dramatic affect on consumer and distribution channel financing. These regions had been among the fastest growing markets over the past several years as falling prices helped new users acquire systems. Now, Latin America and Central/Eastern Europe are expecting volume to fall through 3Q 2009. IDC says that volume will continue to expand in the Middle East and Africa, but at a slower pace than in recent years.

More mature regions are also expecting slower growth. Although the credit crunch will have a significant impact on spending in these regions too, IDC says that a larger portion of the market will be able to weather the storm. Volume growth in these regions has been lowered by 4% to 9% for 2009. Shipments in the United States are expected to decline by almost 3% in 2009 with low single-digit increases in subsequent years. Japan and Canada will see low single-digit growth for a couple years as well. Western Europe has been slower to feel the credit crunch, and low cost notebooks remain a huge driver, so growth is expected to continue at 6%, although this is well below growth of more than 20% in 2008. Asia/Pacific excluding Japan (APeJ) is also affected, although growth is not slowing as fast as in other emerging regions, and total growth remains above the mature regions. Shipments in APeJ are expected to increase by 7% in 2009 and by 18-20% in subsequent years, making APeJ as the fastest growing region throughout the forecast.

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