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OECD Shows Mixed Outlook for Global Economies
Nov 10, 2006
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The latest composite leading indicators (CLIs) suggest that slow economic expansion lies ahead in the OECD area.

September 2006 data shows improved performance in the CLI’s 6-month rate of change in the U.S. and Japan, but weakening performance in the Euro area. The latest data for major OECD non-member economies point to a weakening outlook for Russia and India, moderating growth in China, and steady expansion in Brazil.

The CLI for the OECD area increased by 0.5 point in September to 109.6 from 109.1 in August, and its 6-month rate of change increased for the first time since March 2006.

The CLI for the U.S. rose by 1.0 point in September, and its 6-month rate of change was up for the second month after previously haven fallen since February 2006.

The Euro area’s CLI increased by 0.1 point in September, but its 6-month rate of change has fallen for the last 4 months.

In September, the CLI for Japan rose by 0.1 point and its 6-month rate of change has increased for the last 2 months.

The CLI for the United Kingdom increased in September by 0.1 point, although its 6-month rate of change shows a downward trend since May 2006.

The CLI for Canada increased by 0.1 point in September, but its 6-month rate of change has decreased for the last 2 months.

For France the CLI rose by 0.4 point in September, and its 6-month rate of change has been relatively stable since October 2005.

The CLI for Germany increased by 0.1 point in September but its 6-month rate of change was down for the fifth time in a row.

For Italy the CLI fell by 0.2 point in September and its 6-month rate of change has decreased for the last 3 months.

The CLI for China increased by 1.8 point in September, but its 6-month rate of change fell for the sixth consecutive month.

The CLI for India increased by 0.1 point in August, but its 6-month rate of change was down for the fourth month in a row.

The CLI for Russia decreased by 1.0 point in September and its 6-month rate of change dropped for the fifth consecutive month.

In September, the CLI for Brazil rose by 1.2 point and its 6-month rate of change was up for the fourth time in a row.

The OECD CLI is designed to provide early signals of turning points (peaks and troughs) between expansions and slowdowns of economic activity. The CLI is an instrument of analysis that has to be used carefully. It provides qualitative information on short-term economic movements rather than quantitative measures. Therefore, the main message of CLI movements over time is the direction up or down rather than levels. The OECD uses the 6-month rate of change of the CLI as a pointer to possible turning points.


The total OECD covers the 30 OECD member countries:



The G7 area covers:

  • Canada
  • France
  • Germany
  • Italy
  • Japan
  • United Kingdom
  • United States



The Euro area covers:

  • Austria
  • Belgium
  • Finland
  • France
  • Germany
  • Greece
  • Italy
  • Ireland
  • Luxembourg
  • the Netherlands
  • Portugal
  • Spain


The EU15 area covers the euro area plus:

  • Denmark
  • Sweden
  • United Kingdom

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