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OECD Indicators Signal Continued Moderating Outlook
Apr 6, 2007
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The latest composite leading indicators (CLIs) from the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) suggest that some moderation in economic expansion lies ahead in the OECD area. February 2007 data show weakening performance in the CLI's 6-month rate of change in most of the Major Seven economies. The spreads between short and long-term interest rates are contributing negatively to the performance of the CLIs in all the Major Seven economies, while business confidence is contributing positively in these same countries except Germany.

The latest data for major OECD non-member economies point to strong expansion in China, moderating expansion in India and Brazil, but a weakening outlook for Russia. Click here for OECD Definitions.

The CLI for the OECD area was unchanged in February 2007 at 109.5, but its 6-month rate of change shows a downward trend since March 2006.

In February 2007:

  • The CLI in the U.S. decreased by 0.3 point with its 6-month rate of change showing a downward trend since March 2006.
  • The Euro area's CLI was unchanged and its 6-month rate of change has fallen since June 2006.
  • The CLI for Japan fell by 0.1 point and its 6-month rate of change has a downward trend since March 2006.
  • The CLI for the United Kingdom decreased by 0.1 point and its 6-month rate of change shows a downward trend since May 2006.
  • The CLI for Canada decreased by 0.3 point, and its 6-month rate of change is down over the last 2 months.
  • The CLI for France rose by 0.2 point, but its 6-month rate of change has a downward trend since December 2005.
  • The CLI for Germany fell by 0.3 point and its 6-month rate of change shows a downward trend since May 2006. The CLI for Italy decreased by 0.1 point and its 6-month rate of change shows a downward trend since July 2006.
  • The CLI for China showed a strong 5.6 points rise and its 6-month rate of change increased for the fifth consecutive month.
  • The CLI for Russia decreased by 0.1 point and its 6-month rate of change shows a downward trend since April 2006.
  • The CLI for Brazil decreased by 0.1 point and its 6-month rate of change is also down over the last two months.

The CLI for India, reporting a month behind other regions, remained unchanged in January 2007. Its 6-month rate of change was down for the second month in a row.

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