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OECD Indicators Signal a Moderating Outlook
Mar 19, 2007
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The latest composite leading indicators (CLIs) from the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) suggest that some moderation in economic expansion lies ahead in the OECD area.

January 2007 data show weakening performance in the CLI's 6-month rate of change in all the Major Seven economies. (Click here for OECD Definitions.) Business confidence is contributing negatively to the performance of the CLIs in these same countries, while the spreads between short and long-term interest rates are contributing positively in the U.S., Japan, France, and Germany. The latest data for major OECD non-member economies point to strong expansion in China and India.

The CLI for the OECD area was unchanged in January 2007 at 109.5, but its 6-month rate of change shows a downward trend since March 2006.

Based on January 2007 data:

  • The CLI for the U.S. decreased by 0.3 point with its 6-month rate of change showing a downward trend since March 2006.
  • The Euro area's CLI decreased 0.1 point and its 6-month rate of change has fallen since June 2006.
  • The CLI for Japan fell by 0.5 point and its 6-month rate of change has a downward trend since March 2006.
  • The CLI for the United Kingdom decreased by 0.2 point and its 6-month rate of change shows a downward trend since May 2006.
  • The CLI for Canada rose by 0.2 point, but its 6-month rate of change decreased over the last 2 months.
  • For France the CLI was unchanged, while its 6-month rate of change decreased for the third consecutive month.
  • The CLI for Germany decreased by 0.2 point and its 6-month rate of change shows a downward trend since May 2006.
  • For Italy the CLI decreased by 0.3 point and its 6-month rate of change shows a downward trend since July 2006.

The CLI for India increased by 1.6 point in December 2006. Its 6-month rate of change was up for the fifth month in a row. The CLI for Russia rose by 0.5 point in January 2007, but its 6-month rate of change shows a downward trend since April 2006. In January 2007, the CLI for Brazil increased by 0.3 point, while its 6-month rate of change has been relatively stable since April 2006. No update is yet available for China since the February 2007 news release where its CLI showed a strong 5.9 points rise in December 2006 and its 6-month rate of change increased for the third consecutive month.
 

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