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Mixed Outlook for Major Global Economies
Jan 12, 2007
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The latest composite leading indicators (CLIs) from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) suggest continued economic expansion ahead in the OECD area. (Click for OECD Definitions and Methodological Notes.)

November 2006 data shows weakening performance in the CLI’s 6-month rate of change in the Euro area and the U.S., but improved performance in Canada and Japan. The spreads between short- and long-term interest rates are contributing negatively to the performance of the CLIs in all the major seven economies, while business confidence is contributing positively in the Euro area and the U.S. and negatively in Canada. The latest data for major OECD non-member economies point to a weakening outlook for Brazil and Russia and strong growth in China and India.

The CLI for the OECD area increased by 0.2 point in November to 109.5 from 109.3 in October, but its 6-month rate of change shows a downward trend since March 2006.

  • The CLI for the U.S. rose by 0.2 point in November from a revised 106.4 in October. The revision is mainly due to a major benchmark revision in the U.S. of its industrial production index. The 6-month rate of change for the U.S. shows a downward trend since March 2006.
  • The Euro area’s CLI increased by 0.2 point in November, but its 6-month rate of change fell for the sixth consecutive month.
  • In November 2006, the CLI for Japan rose by 0.1 point and its 6-month rate of change has increased for the last 4 months.
  • The CLI for the United Kingdom increased in November by 0.2 point and its 6-month rate of change was up after previously having been relatively flat since June 2006.
  • The CLI for Canada increased by a strong 1.5 point in November, and its 6-month rate of change shows an upward trend since May 2006.
  • In France the CLI decreased by 0.1 point in November, and its 6-month rate of change has been relatively stable since November 2005.
  • The CLI for Germany rose by 0.6 point in November and its 6-month rate of change was up for the first time since May 2006.
  • In Italy the CLI fell by 0.6 point in November and its 6-month rate of change shows a downward trend since June 2006.
  • The CLI in China rose by a strong 4.1 points in November, and its 6-month rate of change increased for the second month in a row.
  • The CLI in India increased by 1.7 point in October, and its 6-month rate of change was up for the third month in a row.
  • The CLI for Russia rose by 0.6 point in November but its 6-month rate of change shows a downward trend since May 2006.
  • The CLI for Brazil rose by 0.1 point, but its 6-month rate of change decreased for the third month in a row.

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